An American report reveals Hadi and Al-Houthi's game to perpetuate the conflict in Yemen
English - Tuesday 31 August 2021 الساعة 09:35 am
NewsYemen, special translation:
An analysis published by the American foreign policy magazine, "Foreign Affairs," said that Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies have become on the defensive, while the Houthis have become a greater threat to the Saudis, after three years of international pressure to stop the advance of joint Yemeni forces on Hodeidah in 2018.
The analysis - prepared by Michael Hanna, director of the US program at the International Crisis Group, and Peter Salisbury, a prominent Yemen analyst in the group - stated that the Houthis adopted in 2019 a series of successful attacks on Saudi oil and gas infrastructure and airports, and continued to launch successful ground raids inside Kingdom this year.
The analysis said that the internationally recognized government portrays itself as leading a national army, but the truth is that the anti-Houthi forces are a mixture of groups whose main goal is to defend their territories and prevent a complete Houthi takeover, rather than restoring Hadi to power in Sanaa.
Since early 2020, the Houthis have focused heavily on capturing Marib, which is nominally under government control but in reality mostly defended by local tribal groups.
frozen diplomacy
The analysis asserts that "there is no (magic bullet) to end the war in Yemen. There is an urgent need for a modified international approach, but it will not represent an algorithm to end the conflict."
He noted that continuing with the same diplomatic strategy, based on an outdated understanding of the conflict, would be a recipe for disaster.
However, he came back to view the appointment of the new UN envoy as an opportunity to build a negotiating framework that stimulates deal-making and could lead to a more realistic and sustainable peace.
He noted that the disaster worsened six months after the appointment of a special US envoy to Yemen, as the Houthis intensified their attack on the Marib Governorate, the last stronghold of the internationally recognized government in the north of the country, and the economic and humanitarian crises worsened, amid a fuel crisis in the north, and the collapse of currency in the south, a 50% shortfall in funding for the UN humanitarian response, as well as flash floods.
Diplomacy also stalled as the UN-led ceasefire initiative promoted by the new US envoy failed to make any progress.
Nevertheless - the analysis says - there may be cause for hope, as the recent appointment of Swedish diplomat Hans Grundberg as the new UN special envoy to Yemen provides an opportunity for the international community to rethink its approach to ending the war.
But before embarking on a new diplomatic effort in Yemen, the United States, the United Nations, and all countries involved in peacemaking must first reassess their basic understanding of the conflict.
He explained that despite the significant changes in the nature of the conflict, the international approach remained stagnant. The United Nations remained largely focused on brokering a ceasefire agreement between the Houthis and Hadi, with the support of US Special Envoy Timothy Lenderking, as it sought to prevent a battle for the city of Marib from While meeting the Houthis' basic demands, which include reopening Sana'a International Airport and removing restrictions on shipments to Hodeidah port.
He indicated that the United Nations hopes to mediate an end to the fighting and the formation of an interim unity government consisting of members of the Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi government and the de facto authorities of the Houthis in Sanaa.
But there are several problems with this scenario. The first is that it does not take into account the full range of parties involved in the multiple war conflicts or the broad spectrum of local actors who can reach or break a political settlement, and instead provides the Houthis, Hadi government and the Saudis tacitly. Veto power to make peace.
The second problem is that negotiations between the Houthis and the Hadi government are not moving forward, and neither side was willing to make concessions when it believed the military situation was tilting in its favour. UN-led talks were initially bogged down in 2020 by resistance from the Hadi government, which viewed the concessions over the airport and port as an assault on its sovereignty.
He stressed that the Houthis had become the main obstacle to progress, and they raised the ceiling of their demands and demanded first that the ports and airports agreement be separated from the ceasefire, and now they say that they will start ceasefire negotiations only after the government and the Saudis lift the port restrictions and allow the airport to reopen unilaterally.
The other problem, according to the analysis, is that diplomats largely believe that neither side is serious about a settlement.
"The two sides are using their disagreement over the terms of a potential deal as an excuse to avoid negotiations altogether. The Houthis see Marib as a bigger prize than the unity government, and Hadi and his allies fear they are too weak to survive as just one part of this administration," he said.
Some diplomats lose faith that the Saudi-Houthi back channel or additional Omani mediation can make a difference, and at this point a battle for the city of Marib seems more likely than a ceasefire and political talks.
He said that although the United States succeeded in pressuring the coalition and Yemeni forces to stop their advance on Hodeidah in 2018, arguing that its attack would cause a humanitarian catastrophe, that episode was not an objective lesson in how to end the war completely.
He stressed that even if it was possible to broker a deal between Sanaa and Riyadh, this would not mean the end of the war.
He explained that local groups that have lined up against the Houthis for the past six years, and fiercely defended their areas for fear of falling under hard-line rule of the rebels, will continue to fight alone or funded by other regional sponsors.
This could push the country into a new, bloodier and sectarian phase of the war, in which the Houthis expand their geographical reach and fight against their local opponents.
He considered that more bloodshed is probably much more likely than the conclusion of peaceful deals between Yemenis, adding: "There are no quick gains that can be achieved in Yemen."
So what can be done?
The analysis stressed that Washington and its international partners should work to divert the incentives of the opposing parties away from procrastination and move towards making deals. Grundberg's appointment as the new UN special envoy presents a window of opportunity on this front.
The new envoy should be given time and space for a much-needed rethink of the international approach to conflict mediation. It should also prioritize a hearing tour inside Yemen, followed by an expansion of the UN-led negotiations to make them more inclusive. Such a move would prevent the Houthis, the Hadi government, and Saudi Arabia from serving as guardians of the political process, and would stimulate deals between Yemenis and coalition building.
He believed that adding more parties to the negotiations and expanding the talks would reflect the current Yemeni reality, and as such would make the political settlement more sustainable, and the Houthis and Hadi government would not have a monopoly on military authority and regional control.
He added that Washington could play an important role in this rethink, and could help manage interference with Riyadh and the Hadi government, which is likely to resist such steps. Washington is also well positioned to drag other nations together in a working group to support the UN envoy, and to organize participants to pressure local and regional actors in the war to cooperate with mediation efforts.
This group can explain to the Houthis the punitive measures they will face if they continue their attack on Marib. Recent US sanctions against the Houthi economic networks, for example, have shown that Washington is capable of targeted measures that focus on elite players within the movement rather than comprehensive and destructive maneuvers.
Equally important, there are many groups outside these two rivals whose interests must be taken into account if the peace agreement is to be sustainable.
All sides will need to make concessions, starting with making room at the negotiating table for these other groups, including, but not limited to, northern tribes and military leaders, southern pro-independence groups, women and youth, and civil society, the analysis concluded.
