Translation- The umbrella of the "Brothers of Legitimacy" complicates the calculations of conflict and peace with the Houthis... How does antagonizing the southern belts prepare for the return of al-Qaeda?
English - Thursday 09 September 2021 الساعة 09:56 am
NewsYemen, Abdulwali Mujib:
The difficulties and complexities of the conflict and peace equation in Yemen - in the light of the narration in the analysis of Al-Ahram and Kelly and the Al-Ahram Online website in English - are due to many and overlapping factors, including on the side of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, including on the side of legitimacy and its parties, the increasing internal disagreements and the tendency of parties within the government component Legitimacy towards the settlement of the conflict with the southern forces, after the withdrawal of Emirati forces, which threatens and paves the way for the return of al-Qaeda in addition to the lure of inspiration that the recent Afghan event provides to extremists.
The analysis will recall in an ascending context at one point: Emirati forces within the coalition have focused on the south of the country, but the UAE withdrew from Yemen in 2019. With part of the internationally recognized government now courting the militants and at odds with the southern forces and belts, there are fears of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula may regroup. and strengthening its presence in Yemen.
chain of escalation
The new UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, welcomed a series of escalations in the country's conflict this week, as fighting continued both domestically and through attacks on neighboring Saudi Arabia.
Grundberg, who took over his new position on Sunday, succeeding former UN envoy Martin Griffiths, hopes to end the civil war in Yemen.
Since the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels took control of much of Yemen in 2014 and the Arab coalition intervened militarily to restore the internationally recognized government in 2015, the United Nations has sought a political solution to the conflict in Yemen. But peace efforts have been complicated by the interference of mixed state and non-state actors.
Since last year, Saudi Arabia, the main power in the Arab coalition, has been trying to end the war and reach a political settlement. The new administration of US President Joe Biden also joined the peace effort when it came into power earlier this year, and Oman has been acting as an outside mediator to bring the Saudis and Houthis together for dialogue.
However, many analysts in the region and the West believe that the war in Yemen will not end unless there is a thaw in relations between the two main regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, at every point of potential openness between Riyadh and Tehran, the Houthi militia is increasing its attacks on Saudi targets, using Iranian-made drones and ballistic missiles to do so.
The latest escalation a few days ago targeted the eastern ports of Saudi Arabia, where most of the country's oil is exported, according to Houthi reports. But the major Saudi oil company, Aramco, denied that any oil installations, whether in the east or south of the country, were affected.
The Saudi Ministry of Defense said it had intercepted drones and missiles, and destroyed one of the drones in a residential area, injuring two children with shrapnel.
The increase in attacks on Saudi civilian targets by the Houthi militia has coincided with fierce fighting around Marib and other areas in Yemen itself. The Houthis attacked government forces, while the coalition bombed Houthi positions with air strikes.
Dozens were killed in the recent fighting, though numbers are difficult to verify. The war in Yemen has so far claimed tens of thousands of lives, many of them civilians, according to United Nations and United States estimates. Millions of Yemenis have become refugees outside Yemen or have been displaced within the impoverished country.
A Saudi commentator told Al-Ahram Weekly that the Houthi rebels are the main obstacle in prolonging the war and obstructing efforts for a political settlement. "Encouraged by Iran's reluctance to stop its destabilizing activities in the region, client militias such as the Houthis in Yemen have intensified their sabotage efforts," he said.
complex calculations
US, UN, and Omani diplomatic attempts to achieve a breakthrough in the Yemeni conflict have not achieved much so far. The Saudi-led coalition blames the Houthis and their Iranian backers for the failure to reach a peace settlement, although it also acknowledges that there are shortcomings with regard to the legitimacy of the parties it supports in Yemen.
Internal disagreements, especially between the internationally recognized government and the Southern Transitional Council, have contributed to weakening the position of Saudi allies in Yemen.
Disagreements between the various parties of the legitimate government encouraged the rebels. The Saudi commentator said: "Riyadh has spared no effort in its endeavors for reconciliation between all parties, but it is a bumpy road."
Return of Al-Qaeda
Fears are also growing of the re-emergence of extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen in the form of the Islah party are now part of the internationally recognized government, although some observers view it as a political umbrella for terrorists.
Afghan inspiration!
Recent developments in Afghanistan and the Taliban's victory over US forces have inspired armed and terrorist groups in the region, including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Meanwhile, U.S. military involvement in Yemen has decreased significantly, especially through drone attacks.
Moving the conflict south
Emirati forces within the coalition have focused on the south of the country, but the UAE withdrew from Yemen in 2019. With part of the internationally recognized government now courting the militants and at odds with southern forces, there are fears that AQAP may regroup. and strengthening its presence in Yemen.
A new phase of escalation
Some critics have repeated the conventional wisdom that “escalation leads to negotiation,” but such concepts may not apply to the war in Yemen, as the experience of the past few months has shown.
The new Iranian government in Tehran is speaking favorably of openness to repairing its relations with its Gulf neighbors, and despite such words have been spoken before, Saudi and Iranian officials are meeting to discuss security issues.
Two delegations, Iranian and Saudi, also participated in the recent regional summit meeting in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.
However, it seems that these diplomatic moves at the present time do not have any significant impact on the Yemeni conflict, which has entered a new phase of escalation.
