The resumption of oil exports... a decisive battle for the "presidential" that does not accept defeat

English - Thursday 27 October 2022 الساعة 08:59 am
Mocha, NewsYemen, private:

Amid the noise of interactions with the Presidential Command Council’s decision to classify the Houthi group as a terrorist organization and the repercussions of this decision, the main issue that led to this decision, which is the group’s attack on the Dabba oil port in Hadramout, was absent from the scene.

The attack came as an implementation of the terrorist group’s threats to prevent the export of oil produced from the liberated governorates, to impose its conditions on the sharing of oil export revenues, and after the attack, it vowed to continue its attacks by hinting at targeting production fields.

What makes the main issue is the ability of the Presidential Council to prevent the achievement of the Houthi terrorist group’s goal of the attack, which is to stop the process of exporting crude oil, and to quickly resume the export of the shipment, which is currently stored in the Dabba facility, as a result of the departure of the Greek transport ship NISSOS from the port following the attack last Friday.

The final departure of the ship came in contrast to the statements of the governor of Hadhramaut after the attack, in which he said that it was removed only as a precautionary measure, provided that the process of pumping oil to the ship would be resumed in the coming hours.

Five days have passed since the attack without an official explanation confirming the government's intention to export the shipment as a message of defiance against the threats of the Houthi terrorist group, which threatens to have repercussions that increase the fragility of the economic situation in the liberated areas.

The first of these repercussions began to appear quickly, with media reports quoting employees of the Petromasila Oil Company, which operates the Dabba facility and oil production fields in Hadramout, that the company’s leadership informed them that it would not be able to pay their salaries with the suspension of the oil export process.

While the suspension of the oil export process threatens with greater repercussions on the economy in the liberated areas, given that oil revenues are the main source of hard currency for the government and the Central Bank, which may threaten to undermine the stability experienced by the local currency against hard currencies for months.

The suspension of the oil export process also threatens the International Monetary Fund's expectations that the Yemeni economy will exit this year from contraction to a modest growth of about 2 percent.  These expectations are based on several factors, the most important of which is the increase in oil revenues due to the increase in oil prices and the increase in production quantities.

Countless risks and repercussions threaten, in their entirety, to undermine all steps of the Presidential Council to improve the economic and service situation in the liberated areas.  What makes preventing the suspension of oil exports a real challenge, rather more like a decisive and decisive battle for the Council in the face of the Houthi group, the results of which will paint the details of the scene in Yemen during the next stage.