Studies Center expects an escalation of "Al-Qaeda" attacks against the opponents of Houthi and Iran

English - Thursday 02 March 2023 الساعة 08:42 am
Aden, NewsYemen:

The Sana'a Center for Studies expected a change in the behavior of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which is based in Yemen, in light of the current political and military situation in the Yemeni arena, and with the practical transfer of the jihadist leadership center from Afghanistan to Iran under the leadership of (Muhammad Salah al-Din Zaidan), nicknamed "Saif al-Adl". 

In a study prepared by researcher Hussam Radman, under the title (Leadership from Iran: How Saif al-Adl was able to control al-Qaeda in Yemen), the center said that it is expected that al-Qaeda's behavior in Yemen will change in the short and medium term to take on two main features: an increased focus on striking  Western interests and the Arab coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia and their local allies are in the anti-Houthi camp.

He pointed out that the media arms of Al-Qaeda worked throughout the year 2022 to devote a new official discourse that sees the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council as a major enemy.

In its official statements, the organization focused on the need to "liberate occupied southern Yemen" from the hands of foreign infidels, and to fight the local military and security forces, especially those affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council, without addressing the danger of the Houthi group's growing control in most regions of northern Yemen.

The analysis warned that fundamental imbalances would result in the current balance of power, if al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula pursued a policy of targeting Western, Saudi and Emirati interests in Yemen, and would represent a real threat to the United Nations efforts to achieve a truce that reduces escalation and maintains the fragile and steadfast stability despite the expiry of the truce in October.  last October, especially in areas under the control of the internationally recognized government.

On the other hand - the Sana'a Center for Studies says - the internal crisis experienced by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula could push its current leadership (led by Batarfi) to try to raise the effectiveness of the organization and maintain its cohesion by coordinating a major attack - whether against the government, the Saudi-led coalition or interests  West – and this would confuse the delicate political and security scene in the country.

He pointed out that, during last January, Batarfi met with a number of field leaders, including “Abu al-Hayja’ al-Hadidi, Abu Ali al-Disi, Abu Osama al-Diyani and Abu Muhammad al-Lahji,” and asked them to prepare elements to carry out suicide car bomb attacks in the governorates of Shabwa, Abyan, Hadramout and Aden.  .

Batarfi formed a committee to mobilize the fighters, headed by the leader “Abu Ali Al-Disi,” the religious and ideological official in Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Al-Hadidi also directed the local emir of the organization in the governorates of Shabwa and Abyan, to mobilize more elements to carry out operations against the security and military forces of the Southern Transitional Council.

Although Batarfi tried in his last media appearance to adopt a hostile position against Iran and the Houthis, in light of the criticism leveled against him within the organization, in his recent meetings he directed the field leaders of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula not to launch any attacks at all in the areas controlled by the Houthis.

The analysis expected that the growth of al-Qaeda operations in the anti-Houthi camp would undermine the already weak chances of peace in the country.  On the one hand, it will change the focus of international attention from the file of peace to the file of combating terrorism, especially if the Yemeni branch of Al-Qaeda succeeds in carrying out specific operations targeting foreign forces in Yemen, or it arranges operations outside Yemen against regional or Western interests, which will make the fight against Al-Qaeda  The Arabian Peninsula is a new and urgent international priority.

On the other hand, striking the centers of military, political and economic power in the camp of the legitimate government will strengthen the imbalance of power and weaken its ability to confront the Houthis.  Especially between the Islah Party and the Southern Transitional Council as major players.

He believed that al-Qaeda's noticeable involvement in the battles against the Houthis during the years 2015 and 2016 was a major factor in the international community's fear that the organization would benefit from the state of war, and their exertion of great pressure on the two countries of the coalition (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) and the leadership of the Yemeni legitimacy to avoid the scenario of a military decision.

He stated that the intersection of al-Qaeda's accounts in the Arabian Peninsula and its field operations with the interests of the Houthis and their political calculations will impose greater pressure on Tehran and its ally in Yemen to weaken their growing coordination with the organization and prevent it from developing.  This, in turn, will require the international community to abandon short-sighted approaches that might view the Houthis as an aid in the fight against terrorism.

The analysis said: The growing influence of "Saif al-Adel" (the actual commander-in-chief of al-Qaeda and resides in Iran) not only led to a change in the operational path of al-Qaeda in Yemen, but also strongly affected its ideological doctrine and strategic direction.  Which makes it more consistent with Iranian interests in Yemen and the region.

Recent reports indicate that Iran is not satisfied with supplying the Houthis alone with weapons. Iranian smuggling networks are considered the most important supplier of arms to al-Qaeda's arms in Somalia through its Houthi allies in Yemen.

In the long run, the Houthis will benefit from the growth of Sunni jihadist activity in Yemen as a cover to justify their military expansion under the slogan of combating terrorism.

He said that at the present time, the Houthis are exploiting al-Qaeda's activity in areas outside their control as a cover to pass off the rogue actions they are doing and portray them as acts carried out by jihadists, such as: the physical liquidation of opponents or the targeting of international interests.

Since December 2020, qualitative operations have been launched in Al-Mahra and Hadramout against tankers and commercial ships using drones and missiles - suspected of being behind the Houthis.  These operations have evolved in recent months to include oil export ports, which has caused severe damage to government revenues.

According to the Sana'a Center for Studies, Iran and its allies were encouraged to adopt this new strategy only months after al-Qaeda's initiative to plan operations of this kind in these provinces, as one of the brainchild of Saif al-Adl in Iran.