The gun of peace.. Houthi strategy within the framework of a booby-trapped policy
English - Saturday 08 April 2023 الساعة 12:57 pm
Mocha, NewsYemen, special report:
In light of regional and international endeavors, reinforced by a government approach to proceed with a comprehensive peace process that ends the eight-year war in Yemen, the Presidential Leadership Council adheres to the long-suffering policy to jump over the intransigence of the Houthi militia and its continuous plans to overthrow the signs of peace.
As part of its continuous efforts to prolong the war, which enabled it to swallow up the bulk of the geography of northern Yemen, the Houthi escalation in Harib and the fronts south of Marib reveals the militia strategy of the rebels, who hardly enter into peace negotiations until they return to circumvent it and use it to serve their expansionist ambition.
While the file of the Yemeni crisis has witnessed, since the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council in April of last year, a regional and international movement to establish peace and end the war, observers see that the Houthi group seeks to employ this approach in order to enable it to achieve the largest amount of gains at the expense of the opposing parties, in what he sees Others say that the recent military moves of Iran's arm reveal the extent to which the Salafis seek to abort peace efforts in the country.
Holding strategy
At a time when efforts to end the war in Yemen are continuing, Iran's arm is resorting to military escalation against the fronts of the government side, taking advantage of the state of no war and no peace that has continued since the end of the UN armistice.
Similar to the militia talks with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Arab Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen, the group is seeking to achieve more field gains in an attempt to strengthen its options in negotiations, especially after the Chinese mediation reached a political agreement between Riyadh and Tehran.
While the group's military escalation coincides with the regional trend to bring peace to Yemen, observers believe that the military options taken by the rebels aim to keep the rest of the parties at a weaker level in the event of a peace agreement, while the group takes advantage of the absence of coalition aircraft to continue its war.
In this context, the Yemeni writer and political analyst in strategic and military affairs, Dr. Ali al-Dahab, believes that al-Houthi is currently moving according to a strategy of negotiation and progress.
Al-Dahab said, in the context of his interview with "Newsyemen": This is a profitable strategy for the group, given that the current armistice is not binding, and is not based on a cease-fire, and there is no international monitoring that would make it difficult for them to conduct combat operations against the government side.
He added, "If the Houthis are able, at the current stage, to control an area of one kilometer per week, then they are in the winning position, especially since they are pursuing a strategy of negotiation and progress."
He pointed out that: "Al-Houthi penetrates the weakest points while realizing that he will not receive a strong reaction, and in the best case the reaction will be as much as it pushes him to return to his starting point during the recent escalation."
He explained, "The recent transformations ensured for Al-Houthi the non-interference of the Arab coalition air forces in the face of its military operations against the government fronts, while the coalition is aware that the resumption of air intervention against the group will end the armistice and their negotiations with Iran will fail with it."
He added, "Therefore, the group is currently seeking to accumulate gains on the ground, taking advantage of the truce and the inability of the opposing parties to respond in kind, while trying to advance in the weaker defensive areas."
While al-Dhahab considered convincing the Houthis to peace as an emotional issue, he believes that the group is currently looking for something that enhances its self-confidence in front of the opposing parties, or at least what enables it to remove its fears of what its opponents harbor.
Iranian hand
Iran represents a major factor in the transformations of the Houthi rebellion and the growth of its military capabilities. During the years of the war in Yemen, it provided material and logistical support to the coup group, in addition to sending military and political experts to develop the group's weapons and ideologize its political discourse.
And at a time when Iranian support constitutes the turning point in the power of the Houthis, observers believe that the variables of the Riyadh-Tehran agreement may impose a new reality on the future of the Houthis, forcing them to adhere to the peace process, especially if the latter - Iran - is forced to withdraw its hand from the Yemeni file.
In this context, Dr. Ali al-Dahab says: "The Iranian hand, which has recently begun to gradually lift the Houthi movement, if it rises completely, will weaken the group's position and force it to engage in peace processes."
Al-Dahab indicated in his interview with "Newsyemen" that: "The peace process is linked to the external role and the political and religious belief of the group, and the position of the opponents towards it, but the biggest engine is the political belief of the Houthis."
He continued, "If al-Houthi engages in a peace process, he will search for the largest amount of gains so as to keep his opponents at a weak level."
