The Yemen War: Washington’s Lack of Options in Marib
English - Wednesday 17 March 2021 الساعة 11:53 am
NewsYemen, Sana'a Center for Studies:
The Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies has published an analysis by Charlotte Kamen, an Arabian Peninsula affairs analyst at the Virginia-based Navanti Research Group, which reads as follows:
The armed Houthi movement launched a military campaign to control the strategic city of Marib, only a few days after the Biden administration backtracked on Trump's designation of the group as a foreign terrorist organization. The National Army, backed by the resistance fighters and local tribes, is defending to repel the attack, while Saudi Arabia launches air strikes to support them, and redeployed military machinery and equipment. President Biden and his special envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, condemned the Houthi attack on Marib, and stressed the need to find diplomatic solutions to end the protracted Yemeni conflict.
However, it is unlikely that strongly worded statements and statements will change the reality on the ground, as neither the United States nor the international community can seek to achieve a political settlement, while the Houthi attack on Marib threatens to radically change the balance of power in this war. The Houthi takeover of Marib may represent the most articulated shift in the war to date, and this shift will have to be dealt with before pushing toward peace talks.
The city of Marib - which hosts more than two million civilians, most of whom are displaced - has become a safe haven, and symbolically is the last military stronghold of the internationally recognized government in northern Yemen. The Houthi advance towards it threatens to displace hundreds of thousands of people and expose Yemen to the risk of "the worst famine the world has seen in decades," according to United Nations officials. The uprooting of the government and the Islah party from Marib would give the Houthis control over the strategic oil and gas resources of the governorate, and place them in a position that would enable them to head south towards Shabwah and east towards Hadramout, that is, towards other Yemeni oil and gas fields.
Halting the attack on Marib is a key prelude to negotiations in Yemen. Although the United States can pressure the Saudi-led military coalition, the Biden administration lacks influence or ability to influence the Houthis. It is the same dilemma faced by the UN Special Envoy, Martin Griffiths, who has been unable to persuade the group to hold serious peace talks or make meaningful concessions.
The United States has three primary options.
The first - unfortunately more likely - is the continuation of its diplomatic approach to stop the attack on Marib, which will not succeed. The United Nations has tried it many times. Statements, diplomatic statements, and calls for backing have not worked previously either, and are unlikely to succeed this time.
The Saudi-led coalition may be able to fight the Houthis until they reach a stalemate, but this situation will be temporary; The Houthis view Marib as a fateful issue, adopting religious slogans to justify their attack, and seek to control the natural resources in the governorate that they desperately need. In contrast to the situation in 2015, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and local tribesmen defended Marib and forced the Houthis to retreat to Nehm in Sanaa Governorate, the anti-Houthi coalition today is more divided and tired, especially since the UAE's withdrawal from Marib in June 2019.
Ultimately, whether in this round of battles or after it, an unchecked Houthi attack is likely to lead to the fall of Marib, and this in turn necessitates Biden's tacit acceptance of the Houthi’s political and military supremacy in northern Yemen, which will change any future negotiations.
The second option is for the United States to realize that the fall of Marib will be extremely catastrophic from a military, political and humanitarian perspective, and to do everything in its power to prevent the Houthis from controlling it. In order to do so, it will have to resort to the only aspect through which it can influence the Houthis, which is support for a military intervention to repel the attack. However, this is unlikely to be the first option Washington uses, for several reasons, the most important of which is the unwillingness of the Biden administration or Congress to take direct military action in Yemen, not to mention the fact that any direct American military intervention could be counter-productive.
As for the third option before it - after realizing that the statements will not stop the Houthis, and that they do not intend to engage in the fighting directly - is to encourage Saudi Arabia and the UAE to redouble their efforts through military operations in Marib, but this will require Biden to retreat from his speech - at least implicitly - and reverse directions Administration on Saudi Arabia. Instead of pressuring Saudi Arabia to limit its war in Yemen, Biden will need to encourage its military deterrence against the Houthis. Although its role is curtailed, the United States can ask the UAE to provide military support to help Saudi Arabia decisively repel the Houthi attack.
The United States does not have good options in Yemen, but bad and worse options. Encouraging the Saudi-led coalition to repel the Houthis militarily would be embarrassing for US policy shortly after its administration announced that it would cease its support for coalition military operations in Yemen, but allowing the Houthis to take control of Marib would be worse. Thus, forcing the Houthis to retreat substantially is the best deterrent to any future attacks on the city, and preventing the Houthis from expanding further would deal a blow to the group's aspirations, which will prove later to be a necessary step to push them to accept engaging in unconditional negotiations.
The Houthi victory in Marib will likely consolidate the group's control over most of northern Yemen, and the Houthis already see themselves as the primary beneficiaries of six years of war. The air strikes have not succeeded in expelling them from Sana'a, and while they started the war with their former ally, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, today they rule without opposition and as an increasingly nation-state, and their enemies are divided and have competing agendas, and Saudi Arabia is not very popular in Washington. .
The Houthis have no interest in entering into a power-sharing agreement, and if they win in Marib, they will have less incentive to enter negotiations. The United States is stuck, as it does not want to witness the actual partition of Yemen nor to encourage Saudi Arabia to redouble its efforts in Marib while it is trying to drive the kingdom out of Yemen. Besides, the war in Yemen is no longer just a war between two parties, but is now a multi-faceted conflict, and therefore any future peace settlement must include groups such as the Southern Transitional Council and Tariq Saleh's fighters on the Red Sea coast.
The Biden administration must accept the fact that his country cannot end this war alone, but if it wants to put Yemen on the path to peace and ensure that it remains a unified state, it is imperative that it do everything in its power to prevent Marib from falling into the hands of the Houthis.
