The Egyptian Center for Studies: Yemen is an Iranian card in its negotiations with Washington

English - Saturday 19 June 2021 الساعة 04:57 pm
Aden, NewsYemen:

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Thought and Studies said that there is a potential opportunity to overcome frustration in the Yemeni crisis file, if Tehran and Washington reach an agreement on other files, especially the nuclear file.

The Egyptian Center confirmed, in an analysis prepared by Ahmed Aliba, entitled "Who will retreat in Yemen .. Tehran or Washington"?  Iran has the ability to direct the path of the Houthi militia in Yemen and influence its political decision, but this will be subject to bargains in other files.

He pointed out that the "regional solution" scenario has become the approach adopted by the regional powers involved in these files, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, in addition to the results of field calculations on the ground, and the extent of the Houthis' ability to resolve the military situation in their favour, or vice versa.

The analysis said that the current US position reflects a kind of hesitation between providing new incentives to the Houthi militia that could push it to change its position, and the use of pressure cards, after Linder King reached a dead end with the militia, in light of his declaration of the failure of the sixth round talks, which  This was also accompanied by the failure of the talks of the UN envoy, Martin Griffiths, who held meetings with militia leaders in Sana’a, which did not produce tangible results.

He believed that there is a margin of linkage and intertwining, between the failure of the sixth round in the visit of the American envoy to Yemen, Linder King, and the possible progress in the expected sixth round of the nuclear agreement talks with Iran in Vienna, in light of the Iranian role in the Yemeni file, from the perspective of the possible impact of the détente in the nuclear file  on the Yemeni crisis.

He added, "It seems that there is optimism about Washington and Tehran soon reaching a new formula to return to work on the joint work agreement on the Iranian nuclear file (5 + 1), which was indicated by the American "Politco" report after the fifth round last week.


The statements of the UN envoys Griffiths and the American Linder King - says the Egyptian Center for Thought and Studies - indicate that the Houthis rejected the Saudi initiative, a context that was expected since its introduction, as the militia seeks in the end to conclude an American agreement that cancels the course of previous agreements based on the references approved for the settlement (United Nations resolution  2216, Gulf Initiative, National Dialogue Outcomes).

He suggested that a change in the Yemeni crisis in the context of the results of the talks was likely to happen once and for all, and said, "Tehran will seek to start a kind of flexibility in the Yemeni file, provided that the new Iranian government that will be formed in the wake of the elections begins to deal in the two files, within the framework of the regional solution."

He said that the failure of the Houthi militia to finally resolve the battle of Marib may lead to its retreat, in addition to the Iranian position, if Iran decides to deal with the Yemeni crisis by improving the militia's situation within the framework of the settlement process by agreeing on a political partnership with the legitimate government during a transitional phase supervised by the United Nations.  With US and regional sponsorship, and a retreat from the military track.

But he came back to put forward another hypothesis, or what he called a "tactical settlement scenario" that may begin with a truce that paves the way for a ceasefire, while providing new incentives to the Houthis in exchange for the militia showing flexibility in de-escalation on the home front.

While the Egyptian Center for Thought and Studies did not rule out the continuation of the "crisis scenario", it is also linked to the Iranian-American position regarding linking the subsequent files of the nuclear agreement to the path of a "regional solution" or not.