UN expert: The survival of the coalition in Yemen prevents the victory of the Houthis in the north
English - Thursday 22 December 2022 الساعة 05:17 pm
Aden, NewsYemen:
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington saw that the withdrawal of the Saudi-led Arab coalition from Yemen "will not end the war in the country, but rather may expand it," noting that "local armed groups are scrambling to secure and control as much territory as possible."
"The withdrawal of the coalition will ensure the victory of the Houthi militia - the Iranian arm in Yemen - in the north, and perhaps throughout the country," the institute said in an analysis prepared by a former member of the United Nations Panel of Experts on Yemen, Gregory de Johnson.
The analysis criticized the decision proposed by US Senator Bernie Sanders regarding ending the exchange of US intelligence information and the maintenance of spare parts for the Saudi-led coalition aircraft, noting that it faced strong opposition from the White House, including the threat of veto power.
"The debate over the resolution is in many ways emblematic of the broader Yemen puzzle for the United States," he said. "Washington wants to end the war in Yemen but has no real means to achieve that goal."
He believed that Sanders' decision was old and far from the reality on the ground in Yemen, and it was likely to expand the war rather than end it.
He explained: "By cutting off intelligence, maintenance, and spare parts from the Saudi and Emirati air forces, the United States will effectively assist the Houthis in their attempts to seize Marib, and the oil and gas fields in the governorate. Over the past two years, the Houthis have engaged in an offensive in Marib with the aim of establishing an economic base for the independent Houthi state.
He added, "Despite some fairly large gains in 2021, the Houthis have been largely reined in, by Saudi-Emirati air power and so Sanders' war powers decision would have removed this hurdle and given the Houthis a clear path to victory in Marib."
What made matters worse - says the UN expert - is the absence of a guarantee that the Houthis will be satisfied with Ma'rib only. In 2021, when the Houthis were seizing lands in Ma'rib, they also moved to northern Shabwa, threatening another governorate that produces oil and gas. From the point of view of the United States, the thing the only thing worse than the Houthis' control over northern Yemen is the Houthis' control over all of Yemen
While the analysis indicated that the decision of former US President Donald Trump's administration to classify the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization effectively led to the freezing of humanitarian aid in areas controlled by the Houthis, with international organizations concerned about violating US sanctions.
And he added, "Immediately after Biden was sworn in on January 20, his administration had to make a decision (to raise the Houthis' classification)."
He stressed that the United States has learned that the Houthis manipulate and militarize humanitarian aid coming into the country, divert aid to their supporters and use promises of food baskets as carrots to urge families to contribute fighters - including child soldiers - to their cause.
But she also knew that leaving designation and sanctions in place would severely limit humanitarian access into the country and potentially lead to thousands of preventable deaths.
He continued: "To some, this seemed like a pro-Houthi and anti-Saudi decision, just as the Biden administration's opposition to Sanders' 'war powers' decision seemed to be a pro-Saudi decision."
But in reality - says the Gulf States Institute in Washington - both decisions are simply a product of the Yemen conundrum in which the United States finds itself stuck, as the United States lacks the influence to pressure the Houthis to negotiate in good faith, and the few actions the United States can take would Make war worse, not better.
He said, "The United States wants to end the war in Yemen, but its lack of influence over the Houthis is likely to make the few political options available to it a means of complicating the situation in Yemen rather than resolving it towards peace."
He concluded by saying that, as it has done in Yemen for the past two years, Washington finds itself in a state of political paralysis, with few viable options except to maintain the fragile status quo and hope for some kind of breakthrough.
