The Washington Times: The thawing of ice between Iran and Saudi Arabia does not mean that stopping the Yemen war will be easy
English - Monday 10 April 2023 الساعة 09:44 pm
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The Washington Times said that the Yemen crisis is still intractable despite the thaw in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, explaining that this diplomatic breakthrough does not mean that stopping the war in Yemen will be easy.
The American newspaper added that the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has brought with it renewed hope that a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement may be on the horizon in Yemen, the scene of a civil war that has lasted nearly a decade and fueled one of the worst humanitarian crises on the planet.
But it came back to say that US officials and foreign policy analysts warn that optimism may be premature.
They say that the historic agreement between Riyadh and Tehran to restore diplomatic relations could in fact turn into a milestone in the Yemen peace process, but only if the two governments - especially the Iranian side - take concrete steps in the short term.
The Washington Times said that Biden administration officials specifically want to see Iran stop shipments of weapons and other aid to the Houthi rebels, who have been fighting since 2014 against Yemeni government forces backed by a Saudi-led coalition.
It saw that the Iranian-Saudi agreement - which was brokered by the Chinese government and is a sign of Beijing's rising geopolitical power - did not make any concrete commitments regarding ending the war in Yemen.
It continued: "Some foreign policy analysts say it appears that one of China's major achievements was persuading Riyadh to agree to the deal without promises from Iran that it would immediately stop its support for the Houthis."
And the newspaper added, "But officials say that Iran should take this step. They argue that Iran has an opportunity to show its seriousness in restoring normal diplomatic relations with Riyadh, and to play a positive role in ending the regional conflict, rather than helping to perpetuate the conflict."
The American newspaper said that analysts warn against linking the peace process in Yemen directly to the Saudi-Iranian normalization efforts.
They say it is too easy to frame the country's civil war as a proxy battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and assert that neither Riyadh nor Tehran could simply call off the fighting at any moment if they preferred.
Gerald Feierstein, a senior fellow in diplomacy at the Middle East Institute and former US ambassador to Yemen from 2010 to 2013 said, “The main issues are internal to Yemen and the resolution of the conflict must be internal to Yemen.”
“A lot of the significance of the Saudi-Iranian agreement is still unproven,” Feierstein said in an interview. “I think it's not at all clear that it means much, and I think the resolution of the conflict still has to come through intra-Yemeni negotiations that are supposedly supported by the auspices of the United Nations.”
Feierstein stressed that the Houthis must be convinced that they cannot win the conflict militarily, and therefore the best option for them is to enter into direct negotiations. But the Houthis could theoretically continue fighting without direct Iranian support, which means that any deals struck by Tehran would have limited influence over Houthi decision-making.
He continued, "The Houthis are perfectly capable of continuing this conflict without Iran. I think providing drones and ballistic missiles, at least components of those things to the Houthis, has been important to them over the past few years. But can they continue to fight without the Iranians? Yes." They certainly can."
However, the long-term continuation of the conflict will certainly be more difficult for the Houthis without Iranian support. With this in mind, Saudi Arabia initially insisted on ending aid to the Houthi rebels. But Beijing's involvement appears to have helped change that calculus.
However, the long-term continuation of the conflict will certainly be more difficult for the Houthis without Iranian support. With this in mind, Saudi Arabia initially insisted on ending aid to the Houthi rebels. But Beijing's involvement appears to have helped change that calculus.
"Riyadh's initial position included preconditions for any talks with Iran on 'Tehran leaving Yemen to the Yemenis', as the kingdom viewed Iran's support for the Houthis as a major obstacle to any de-escalation," said Yasmin Farouk, a Middle East scholar at Carnegie.
Despite the lingering questions, officials and analysts largely believe that there has never been a more promising moment for ending the conflict than today.
