Houthi and Partnership... Ambitious Expansion and Stage Variables
English - Tuesday 21 March 2023 الساعة 08:12 am
Sana'a, NewsYemen, exclusive:
Since the beginning of the first events of the six wars in Saada, the Houthi group's policy was known for its violating agreements and jumping over the terms of partnership and peace, to work to transform negotiations into turning points that serve its interests and expansionist ambitions, and thus succeeded in reaching Sana'a.
Today, in light of the regional changes that imposed political reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh, the Yemeni crisis is witnessing speculation about international and regional efforts to impose a transitional phase based on the formation of a consensual government shared by the various Yemeni political components and forces, including the Houthi group.
However, observers believe that the history of the Houthi group does not encourage the rest of the parties to give it confidence, as it may turn against any solutions of this kind, given that the group does not believe in any of the vocabulary of political partnership, while others believe that the Houthi movement is currently facing strategic and political challenges. It may force it to accept a kind of political partnership that guarantees it the preservation of its influence within geographical boundaries.
Imperfect trust
The Houthi group is known for its extremist ideological ideology, as it relies on references that do not believe in political partnership and justifies breaking treaties and circumventing the peace terms it concludes with various other forces and components. The era of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh has historically witnessed full of Houthi contradictions.
In this context, journalist Muhammad al-Mayas points out that "the Houthi group has been known during the past years for its contradictory nature with the vocabulary of peace, and it has never ratified a treaty it concluded with any party."
Al-Mayass added, in the context of his interview with "Newsyemen": "The Houthi group fought six wars against the Yemeni government during the era of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and all of these wars ended with treaties in which the government made many concessions to establish peace in Saada and end the group's rebellion, but all of these wars Treaties ended in bloodier wars.
He continued, "The group's history is full of coups and does not encourage any of the Yemeni parties to give it the confidence of political partnership, unless there are serious solutions to disarm it and force it to transform from an armed group into a peaceful political partner."
Another visualization
In light of the talk about international and regional efforts to push the Yemenis into a peace process based on the formation of a single government in which the Houthi group would be a partner, political analysts believe that the Houthi movement will not be an active partner in peaceful political action. While they believe that it may exploit these changes to strengthen its position in light of the reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran.
In this context, the Yemeni writer and political analyst in strategic and military affairs, Dr. Ali al-Dahab, believes that the settlement in Yemen will be different from what can be traditionally expected, in that the Houthi group will be disarmed and turned to active participation in the government.
Al-Dahab added in his interview with "Newsyemen": "Until now, it is not possible to imagine the final form of the next stage, as I do not think that Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi will accept the transition from someone who sees himself as the leader of the country and tries to be an Arab leader, to the leader of a group confined within a government."
While al-Dahab believes that this transformation is very difficult and cannot be expected from Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, he believes that the man - Abdul-Malik al-Houthi - has a broader ambition, noting that: "He takes from his family and dynastic environment at the level of the Hashemites and the Shiites of all their sects, including the Shiite sects." non-Jarudi, taking them as a fulcrum and a source of strength.
He imagines that there will be another situation for the Houthi group, believing that it may: "The Houthi group will be retained as the ruler of the region it controls at the present time, under a federal government, provided that a central army is formed from all components, stationed in the same areas it controls." The interior regions are subject to security, and the army is reformulated in one way or another.
He said, "I do not imagine that the Houthi movement will be a movement actively participating in peaceful political action, but it will be a ruling movement in the areas under its control."
At the same time, al-Dhahab is not optimistic about the peace process that the United Nations and regional powers are trying to push the Yemenis towards, which is the formation of a single government, as he believes that "the Houthi group may exploit the changes to strengthen its position, especially since it is currently afraid of the Riyadh and Tehran agreement, and is seeking to bridge The gap so that it does not have an impact on its political and military position.
Reality data
In light of the Yemenis' fears of the Houthi group's coup against the peace initiatives that the United Nations is seeking to impose, observers believe that the Houthi movement may temporarily accept the formation of a federal government that would grant it governing authority over the areas it controls, given the shift in the Yemeni crisis file since after April 7 of the year. Past – the date of formation of the Presidential Leadership Council.
In this context, Dr. Ali al-Dahab, who believes that the changes facing the Houthi group at the present time do not allow it to expand, says that: "It may accept a political settlement of this kind at the present time, but it is an acceptance of reality and its data."
Al-Dahab added, in the context of his speech to "Newsyemen": "If you try to advance in Marib, for example, the situation will be completely different from before April 7, as the rest of the fronts will move. Because today everyone is in a leadership council and there is a joint decision, and the fronts will move in particular." The fronts of Taiz and the western coast.
He explained that "Iran may abandon the Houthis in a political barter in exchange for its interests with Saudi Arabia, but this abandonment is a bargaining chip with which it will be exhausted, and this will be reflected in the Houthis and their military status."
While al-Dahab believes that the expansionist ambition is part of the group's strategy and will not stop, he indicated that: "It cannot achieve this ambition at the present time, because the position of its opponents no longer allows it to do so."
He explained, "In 2014, the Houthi movement was advanced and the circumstances were in its favour, so it had hidden support from the regional player, and their interests were limited, but now the regional interests are intertwined."
And while he believes that "the international community and global power centers have become convinced that the situation will remain as it is," he believes that "the group no longer has the ability to bring about this transformation, and the last opportunity before it was the battle of Marib, and it failed."
He stated that: "The expansionist aspirations of the movement are present in its speech, which indicates that their borders are Mecca, Medina, and the Arabian Peninsula, and Muhammad al-Bukhaiti is the most frank of them, and if he twists and turns in his speech, then it is the truth, as the group seeks to reach Riyadh and beyond that."
